3.04.2008

Quick Note On Politics

For those of you baffled by the Democratic delegate counts, here's a handy calculator from Slate.com that'll clear things up a bit. Punch in the vote percentages you expect the candidates to get in the upcoming states, and the delegate total will automatically update.

Even assuming Hillary wins big in Ohio and Pennsylvania and ekes out a narrow win in Texas, it's hard to see any set of circumstances where she holds a delegate lead by the time this thing wraps up. That said, if she can change the media perception of her campaign (i.e. become the "comeback kid")and string together a few wins, she'll be in position to take this all the way to the convention. If that happens, she'll have an argument -- not necessarily a good one, mind you, but an argument -- that she should be the nominee. That translates as all-out political warfare, so grab your popcorn or cover your eyes.

My take? He wins Texas handily, and loses Ohio by 6-8. With a big Vermont win for him (and a narrower RI one for her), he takes a net delegate lead on the day. She'll attempt to spin this as a win, and it won't work.

2 comments:

Brady said...

Good call (minus Texas). I just hope the Democratic primary turns negative for the remainder of the time period. Nothing like free attacks for my boy McCain.

Irons said...

Hell, I was way off. I figured he'd outperform the polls in TX and be a bit closer in OH.

That said, it looks like she's only going to net +4 on the night -- he's still in the driver's seat.