Rudy Giuliani: CWATCF Primary Dropouts Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders.

In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Rudy Giuliani, Notre Dame Fightin' Irish

Some people don’t get to be president or coach Notre Dame because they’re poor, female, or black. Rudy Giuliani doesn’t get to be president because:

1. He ran a campaign that made Fred Thompson’s clown circus look positively competent – $50 million dollars spent, 1 delegate received. At that rate, he would have needed $60 billion to win.

2. He’s an asshole.

Seriously, read this Vanity Fair article, which focuses on Rudy's wife. It would be in the running for most vicious political hit piece of all time ... if it weren’t all true. Eleanor & Franklin the Giulianis are not.

The results were ugly, lopsided, and deserved. As former NYC mayor Ed Koch said, “The beast is dead.” Judging by Fat Charlie's reputation among Notre Dame alums, we'll see the same reaction after the Irish can his ass.

John Edwards: CWATCF Primary Dropouts Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders.

In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

John Edwards, Louisville Cardinals

Coming off of a stellar showing in ’06, it appeared that Louisville had established themselves as a big time, Big East program. With stud QB Brian Brohm and a slew of offensive talent coming back, it looked like the Louisville – WVU game would determine the Big East champ, and perhaps vault the winner into the national championship game.

Similarly, most people figured Edwards was destined for a primary death match with Hillary Clinton. With his strong, populist message, a commitment to timely issues like Katrina and health care, and a hefty bank account, all of the elements were in place for a big-time run. Even the crappy stuff – Elizabeth’s illness and the hideous Coulter comments – seemed like it would garner him sympathy votes.

Like Louisville, though, success just never materialized. Strangely, this wasn’t due to flubs on the campaign trail or injuries – Edwards was largely mistake-free (aside from the horribly-handled “Breck girl” incident and the hedge fund nonsense), and Louisville’s stars stayed healthy for the majority of the season. For whatever reason, it just didn’t happen. All that promise led to nothing more than 6-6 and a campaign over before Super Tuesday.

That said, Louisville has a strong foundation in place, and is poised to be a player in the Big East for years to come. Edwards, likewise, has the power to reshape the 2008 race with an endorsement (Obama?), and can parlay that into all sorts of goodies: funding for his pet projects, a position as the most powerful Secretary of Labor we’ve seen in decades, or even an Attorney General role (that sound you hear is Republicans collectively crapping their pants).

Bill Richardson: CWATCF Primary Dropouts Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders.

In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Bill Richardson, Texas Longhorns

Despite a record far outstripping any of the other candidates (Secretary of Energy, Governor of Arizona, Congressman, Ambassador to the U.N., consultant at Kissinger Associates, former minor league baseball player), it quickly became apparent that Richardson was completely out of his league.

Likewise, UT’s early victories got them a pretty ranking, but quite a few people noticed the narrow escapes at Rice and UCF. The loss to K-State, like Richardson's humiliating defeat in Iowa, caused the respective parties to crater in the polls. Still, both Richardson and the Longhorns somehow managed to keep this from becoming embarrassing -- a 10-3 record with a #10 ranking at least looks respectable, as does the Governor's 4th place showing in a stacked Democratic field.

The future? Well, Richardson's endorsement will carry some weight in the western states, and it’s not unlikely that he’ll be considered for the VP slot (biiiiiiiiiig mistake) or a hefty cabinet position. Likewise, the Longhorns have big things in front of them, and a Big 12 title isn’t out of reach in 2008.

Fred Thompson: CWATCF Primary Dropouts Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders.

In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Fred Thompson, Florida State Seminoles

What?

Where am I? What’s going on? I'm hungry!

Who are all of these people? Where are my sons? What am I running for? Golf cart! Golf caaaaaaaaaart!

Who is this blond woman? Where am I?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Mike Huckabee: CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders. In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Mike Huckabee, South Florida Bulls

Eight months ago, you didn't know their name -- literally. In April of last year, Huckabee actually polled at 0% in a CNN survey. South Florida drew a whopping 26 votes in the USA Today preseason poll. This is remarkable in that Notre Dame more than tripled the Bulls' vote total (despite having no winnable games scheduled before October). Needless to say, expectations in both camps were not high.

And why would they have been? South Florida had never attained a top-25 ranking, and Huckabee was a hick-state governor whose claim to fame was that he used to resemble Rosie O'Donnell.

But then something started to happen: a few successful appearances on television garnered them a bit of national attention, the supposed frontrunners looked like hell, and then came the first real test. For Huckabee it was the Iowa caucuses; for USF a national spotlight game against West Virginia. Against bigger, better, better-funded opponents, both USF and Huckabee somehow managed to win and make it not look like an upset. #2 in the country? Republican frontrunner?

Sigh. At times the sports media (and fans) get so caught up in the thrill of optimism that we forget the primary characteristics of the world we live in: despair, defeat, and ugly reality. South Florida thudded back to earth with three straight losses to middling Big East teams, and people started to take a closer look at that West Virginia win. Pat White left in the second quarter? Slaton turned into Fumbles McGee? Hmmm ... perhaps that narrow victory wasn't so impressive after all. Pretty soon, we all realized that USF might not even be as lovable as we thought -- turns out their academic standards make the SEC look like the Ivies, and that they've been taking institutional control lessons from Mr. Bowden. Now we're beginning to see them for what they actually are -- a solid, up-and-coming program that's just getting its cheating sea legs, but NOT a national title contender.

And Huckabee? Well, it hasn't happened yet, but the implosion is coming. Sure, he beat Romney in Iowa ... but did people underestimate the Mormon thing (answer: probably)? Forget that Giuliani, the national front runner, didn't bother competing? Or just fail to realize that the Republican field was, um, piss-poor? In short, Iowa = overrated.

So Huckabee's the cute candidate at the moment -- he's got a lovely story (the man from Hope part deux, used to be a lardass), he's charming, funny, and his background is wholly unknown. He's Chuck Norris approved. Oh, and did we mention that he's the one candidate who evangelicals don't hate? A ticket headed by Giuliani or Romney -- both of whom have questionable conservative social credentials -- could effectively end the Republican voting coalition as we know it. On the other hand, there's no questioning that Huck hates the gays, loves the fetuses, and owns guns. If he's the headliner, the Southern Bible-thumpers will turn out in droves.

But will anyone else? Huck is hands down the most polarizing candidate for national office since Jesse Jackson. Will the average fiscally conservative Reaganite really vote for a candidate who spends like a big-government liberal and uses evangelical code words in his political speeches? Or runs TV ads with giant crosses in the background? If you're a secular independent, is there a chance in hell that you pull the lever for Huckabee? We almost forgot to mention that he's a petty, vindictive asshole, has corruption problems, and thinks he's going to replace the IRS with a 30% sales tax. I'm guessing the word that springs to mind is not "electable."

The fatal blow to his candidacy, however, may lie in his efforts while Governor to release serial rapist (and born-again evangelical) Wayne Dumond. Dumond had become something of a cause celebre for right-wing fanatics, as his latest victim had been a distant Clinton cousin. This led to some sort of bizarre conspiracy claim of unjust prosecution and imprisonment by those evil Clintons, and Huckabee pressured the parole board for Dumond's early release. It was granted, and less than a year later Dumond raped and murdered a woman in Missouri. Read the entire Murray Waas article -- it'll turn your stomach. As for the effect, presidential races are often conducted along the story lines of prior campaigns ... remember Willie Horton?

Anyway, we're talking serious bust potential here -- we can't see him winning the primaries, but crazier things have happened. If he somehow makes it to the general, we'll have a stomping of epic proportions, and an unsavory race (if his opponent is Clinton) that'll remind you of the Starr hearings.

UPDATE: Reader Double K reminds us that we forgot to mention Huck's son, David, who makes George W. Bush's youthful antics look socially responsible (listen up, electorate: if you elect two generations of Huckabees to the White House, CWATCF is moving to Canada).

And what did David Huckabee do? Well, for starters ... while working as a Boy Scout counselor, he caught a stray dog and hung it by the neck from a tree. Apparently, that wasn't sociopathic enough, so Lil' Huck then slit the dog's throat and stoned it to death.

Daddy Huck then allegedly had his lawyers lean on the appropriate parties to stamp out the investigation, even firing the head of the state police. David wasn't so lucky in 2007 when he was caught trying to bring a Glock onto a plane in his carry-on luggage. Until you elect him president, of course, Mike Huckabee can't fire the head of the TSA.

CWATCF Prediction

The test is South Carolina -- if Huckabee is going to remain a national player, he's got to win the evangelical strongholds. While he's led for a while, recent polls in SC (and other states) show the Huckabee lead dwindling -- or nonexistent. We're not sure we fully buy the recent surge of McCain support, but polls show that something is happening. Our forecast is a narrow loss in SC followed by a hardcore crash and burn.

Hillary Clinton: CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders.

In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Hillary Clinton: Ohio State Buckeyes

Sigh. The "inevitability" candidates. Everybody knew coming into 2007 that Ohio State and Hillary were safe bets for the Big Dance in '08 ... and exactly nobody was particularly excited about this. Clinton's early money advantage seemed dispositive, as did the Buckeyes' lineup of Big Ten patsies. God, was this really going to happen?

It's hard to think of two entities that would draw higher "general unfavorables" in a national poll. Notre Dame? Bin Laden? W? The problem is sorting out how much of this antipathy is deserved, and how much is unjust. We have neither the blog space nor the inclination to sort out the Clinton-hate of the 90s. At this point, you all know her and you've made up your mind (or you're terrified of Howard Wolfson and will do whatever he tells you to do). Nor do we care to rehash last year's debacle of a National Cham ... hahahahahaha who are we kidding? 41-14, bitches! But the point stands: sure, Hillary is abrasive, robotic, and non-feminine, and Tressel is a cheater with a boring playbook and a sweatervest ... but should we hate them? Do Tressel's accomplishments outweigh his bland, efficient manner and tendency to backdoor his way into big games? Do Hillary's (sometimes unsuccessful) policy initiatives while first lady, Senatorial background, and general comfort with the Washington machine outweigh Monica (Republican laugh line: nothing could outweigh Monica)?

The answer? Among the voting public, who the hell knows. Hillary has gotten a bigger challenge than expected from Obama (and Edwards?), much like Ohio State's choke at Illinois -- remember that at the time, everyone thought that loss would knock them out of the BCS championship game.

We'll see if Hillary can pull off the Ohio State road-to-redemption and roll into the general. Oh, she'd better win Iowa. And if she doesn't win Iowa, she'd better win NH. But would a loss in either sink her battleship? Um ... maybe? She's better organized than anyone on a national scale, and she -- unlike the other frontrunners -- is on the ballot in Michigan and Florida.

CWATCF Prediction:

Second in Iowa to Obama (and damn, she better not come in third), first in NH. If this happens, the technical term for the Democratic primaries becomes "clusterfuck." The question then becomes whether a black man (or a Clinton) can really win in South Carolina. Our guess is that Obama's Iowa victory gives him enough momentum to be a clear frontrunner heading into the second big round of primaries. Watch for the Clinton thugs (Mark Penn, that's you!) to pull out the long knives if that happens.

Mitt Romney: CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders. In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams.

Go here for links to all of the candidates.

Mitt Romney: 2007 Alabama Football

OK, so this is cheating a bit -- we're really comparing Romney to Saban rather than the Alabama team itself -- but hey, Nick Saban and Mitt Romney might be the two biggest snake oil salesmen in the country. Both have an undeniable record of past successes, but current circumstances preclude them from winning big this year.

1) I believe exactly what you prefer me to believe.

Who knows where these guys stand? Does Saban really hate Auburn? I mean, really hate Auburn? Sure, he can spout platitudes about Tide Pride with the best of 'em, but raise your hand if you think Saban wouldn't take over for Tuberville this minute if the Tigers dangled $4.5 million in front of his nose. Bama fans are right to be hesitant in fully embracing the man.

Likewise, does Mitt really have the xenophobic qualifications necessary to be the Republican nominee? Oh, he claims to hate the gays, though nobody's sure if he actually means it. Since he kicked off his campaign at the Henry Ford Museum, we're pretty sure he really hates the Jews. He's perfectly happy to persecute brown people if necessary ... but it's not a Tancredo-esque crusade for him.

And abortion? Oy. His views have "evolved."

2) Fine, I'll sleep with you, but only if you wear this paper bag.

Mitt's a soulless corporate raider (his entire candidacy is staked on the fact that this makes him a competent manager) an animal abuser, and -- oh my -- a former Massachusetts governor who approved state-sponsored health care.

Similarly, Alabama hired a less-than-friendly mercenary, and Bama fans would probably be happy to torture a dog or two these days. Did we mention that Saban's a Yankee, born and bred in the Northeast? And not The Bear?

3) Hey, is that an elephant in the corner?


Poll question idea for the Gallup operation in Alabama: If this was the Inquisition and you were on the rack, who would you vote for, a Mormon or an LSU Tiger? With a nod to Pat Buchanan, the likely answer: Keep turning the screws.

Saban is/was a Tiger. End of story. Likewise, no matter how many times the Mittster says he loves Jesus, he's going to be a tough sell to evangelical voters ... and everyone else, for that matter. Sooner or later, the Mormon religion will get a full vetting by Christian (and secular) voters, and it won't be pretty.

Here's what you're going to hear on the tee-vee: The Mormon church was founded in 1827 by Joseph Smith, a convicted con man (who spent his early years divining for water) who claimed to find golden tablets with messages from God. Joseph refused to show said tablets to anyone else, and after he transcribed them they "returned to God," i.e. disappeared. Joseph, and subsequent church leaders, claimed that God frequently granted them revelations. A surprising number of these involved granting those same leaders additional (and very young) wives.

Other problems? The LDS embraced polygamy (before it officially didn't, though many fundamentalist sects still embrace it), was an officially racist institution (until 1978!). According to Brigham Young, a church leader, having sex with black people would kill you on the spot (again, the church later changed their mind). Did I mention that they wear magic underwear? And were involved in one of the worst mass-murders ever on US soil?

*Ed. Note: We don't think Mormonism is objectively any crazier than Christianity. 200,000,000 people in this country believe that a long-haired hippie could magic water into wine, walk on water, and fly. Mormons just believe that similar things happened ... um ... in 1880.

Are these facts indicative of Romney's capacity to serve as President of the United States? Probably no more than Saban's Tiger ties are to Bama's success. But that doesn't mean they aren't relevant to the deep-seated opinions of fans and voters.

CWATCF Prediction

Regardless of your level of competency, it's damn difficult to overcome the average guy's perception of your past. Romney is smart, capable, and flush with campaign money. In a world void of abortion, gays, and the Religious Right he might make a decent president. But in an era where issue-voting is vitally important, it's difficult to see voters picking a guy with virtually no identifiable positions.

Mitt's big problem is Huckabee -- if evangelical voters have a viable alternative, he's probably toast. Huckabee, however, is a terrible candidate who will (given enough time) suffer from overexposure. If this happens early enough, Romney can win Iowa on Jan. 3 (and he'll likely take NH, too). He leads in Jan. 8's MI primary ... and could ride that momentum to a victory in SC the next week, obtaining an insurmountable lead.

Romney could be your nominee with a few breaks, but something akin to Saban's 6-6 year is more likely. Expect an incredibly embarrassing ULM-caliber defeat along the way.

John McCain: CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide

In a year littered with 2-loss teams aspiring to college football's throne, it's only appropriate that the Presidential primary field is filled with flawed pretenders. In an attempt to make this approachable for you blog-reading Neanderthals, we give you The CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide, comparing each wannabe-Reagan to one of this season's college football teams. Go here for links to all of the candidates.

John McCain: 2007 Michigan Wolverines

Much like preseason #5 Michigan, John McCain entered the 2007 season with high expectations. As a distinguished four-term senator, veteran, and POW (the man cannot raise his arms above shoulder-level because of torture), McCain initially appeared to be a giant in a field of midgets. McCain had been an early leader in 2000 against George W. Bush, as well, but suffered a bitter -- and decisive -- defeat in the South Carolina primary (someone, presumably Rove, started a whisper campaign claiming that McCain had fathered a black baby ... shockingly, this swayed a number of enlightened South Carolina voters). Michigan's 2006 season ended on a similar note, with a loss to #1 Ohio State (hahahaha ... #1 at the time) knocking them out of a potential National Championship berth. To the delight of Michigan-haters across the nation, the Wolverines followed this up by whining a lot, then bending over for Pete Carroll's USC team in the Rose Bowl.

But hey, 2007 looked bright. Henne and Hart were back, McCain's team was in place. The conventional wisdom was that both parties were experienced, battle hardened, and destined for big things.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand then things went south ... you might remember a certain upset in Week 1, and you probably helped John McCain not raise any campaign money.

Needless to say, nobody handled this particularly well.

Suddenly, the discontent started to fester. Republicans remembered that they hated McCain, a traditional Goldwater Republican (a popular breed in the Southwest, usually with libertarian leanings, especially on social issues). McCain had spent the last three years shamelessly/pathetically pandering to W, Falwell, and other assorted bigots, but it didn't take (Think Lloyd Carr toying with the spread). At the end of the day, the man just doesn't seem hard-line enough on abortion, it's not crystal clear that he finds the homos distasteful ... and dear god, he doesn't hate brown people enough. Like the Michigan fan base, the Republican party had evolved (heh ... it's funny because Republicans don't believe in evolution).

And it seemed that both 'o7 Michigan and McCain would sink into oblivion, good only for a few snickers at OSU keggers or Jonah Goldberg-hosted cocktail parties (note that the respective events would be quite similar in both decorum and collective IQ of the attendees).

But after the initial period of embarrassing floundering, something strange happened: the beast didn't die. I'm sure we all remember looking in the paper in Week 8, seeing a "#15" by Michigan's name, and thinking "Wait -- what the hell?" It's mind-blowing to think about, but after losing to a I-AA team, Michigan had a chance to win the Big Ten and go to a BCS bowl (ed. note: thank God this didn't happen). After we left McCain for dead, the same thing's happening here -- all of a sudden, he's polling second in Iowa, and hanging around within striking distance in a number of early primary states. Could he really pull this off?

CWATCF Prediction:

Of course, we all know how this ended for Lloyd Carr, with him "retiring" to the great sorrow of at least four Michigan fans. Likewise, McCain's campaign is probably too far behind to catch up, but don't write him off quite yet. A solid second in Iowa (to Huckabee) and New Hampshire (to Romney) might be the launching pad he needs to become a serious contender. Michigan and California will likely decide this thing, and right now they're anybody's game.

Bottom line? Who the hell knows -- this is your dark horse candidate.

CWATCF Primary Voter's Guide

REPUBLICANS

John McCain: Michigan Wolverines
Mitt Romney: Alabama Crimson Tide
Mike Huckabee: South Florida Bulls
Fred Thompson: Florida State Seminoles
Rudy Giuliani: Coming Soon
Ron Paul: Coming Soon

DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama: Coming Monday
Bill Richardson: Coming Soon
John Edwards: Louisville Cardinals
Hillary Clinton: Ohio State Buckeyes